A World in Polycrisis
The year 2025 marks a departure from post-Cold War assumptions, with escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal, and technological challenges intertwining into a complex "polycrisis." This dashboard explores the five core domains of global risk shaping our world.
State-Based Conflict
Ranked as the most pressing immediate global risk.
Climate Inaction
A top long-term risk with the world on a >3°C warming trajectory.
Disinformation
The leading short-term risk, supercharged by Generative AI.
I. A World Disrupted
The geopolitical landscape is defined by intense great power competition, devastating regional conflicts, and the fraying of the global order. This section explores the central rivalries and key flashpoints driving global instability.
The Central Arena: U.S.-China Strategic Competition
The rivalry between the U.S. and China is the main organizing principle of the international system, spanning trade, technology, and military posture. Select a perspective below to see how each nation is approaching this comprehensive contest.
Arc of Instability: Regional Flashpoints
🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Palestine Conflict
A devastating offensive in Gaza and potential annexation of the West Bank risk wider regional war. U.S. diplomatic efforts are strained by Israeli ultranationalist policies.
�🇩 Sudan's Civil War
The world's worst humanitarian crisis, with 12M+ displaced. The conflict is fueled by external powers, including the UAE, Egypt, and Iran, in a dangerous proxy war.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 War in Ukraine
A grinding war of attrition continues. Wavering Western support and unpredictable U.S. policy under Trump create a strategic opportunity for Russia to press its advantage.
II. The Unavoidable Crisis
Climate change is a clear and present danger, yet the global response is fracturing along geopolitical fault lines. This section visualizes the divergent strategies of the world's largest emitters and highlights the demands of the most vulnerable nations.
A Tale of Four Emitters: Comparing Climate Policies
The world's four largest emitters are pursuing starkly different climate paths. This chart compares their key 2030 targets for reducing the emissions intensity of their economies.
This chart shows the pledged reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 from 2005 levels. A higher percentage indicates a more ambitious target. The U.S. position reflects a likely withdrawal from its previous commitments.
III. An Unsettled Economy
The global economy is slowing amid rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty. This environment exacerbates inequality and creates divergent paths for advanced and developing nations, whose perspectives on the system's fairness differ dramatically.
Global Growth Projections (2024 vs. 2025)
International financial institutions project a broad-based slowdown in economic growth, driven by man-made factors like trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
This chart compares projected GDP growth rates. The slowdown impacts nearly 70% of economies, hindering poverty reduction and development goals, especially in the Global South.
A Systemic Divide: Economic Perspectives
Advanced and developing economies view the global economic system through different lenses. Select a perspective to explore their distinct policy approaches and priorities for 2025.
IV. Global Health Security
The aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to reveal a system under strain. The world has forged a new Pandemic Agreement, but its success depends on bridging deep geopolitical divides over equity, financing, and national interest.
The WHO Pandemic Agreement: A Framework for Equity
Adopted in May 2025, the agreement aims to prevent a repeat of "vaccine nationalism." Its cornerstone is the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing (PABS) system, a grand bargain between developed and developing nations.
Countries Share Data
Nations provide pathogen samples & genetic data to speed up R&D.
Manufacturers Share Products
In return, firms provide 20% of vaccines/therapeutics to the WHO for equitable distribution.
V. Technology and Information
The rapid rise of AI and the weaponization of disinformation present a double-edged sword. In response, three distinct models for governing the digital world have emerged, creating a new arena for ideological and geopolitical competition.
The Regulatory Model
European Union
A comprehensive, rights-based approach focused on creating a trustworthy online environment through legally binding rules like the Digital Services Act (DSA).
- ✓Focuses on platform processes and risk mitigation, not content censorship.
- ✓Imposes transparency on algorithms and content moderation.
- ✓Threatens massive fines (up to 6% of global turnover) for non-compliance.
The Free Speech & Security Model
United States
A patchwork approach shaped by strong First Amendment protections, relying on self-regulation and targeting foreign malign influence as a national security threat.
- ✓Focuses on the foreign actors behind disinformation, not the content itself.
- ✓Relies on public-private partnerships (e.g., FBI and tech companies).
- ✓Faces internal political tension between countering threats and fears of domestic censorship.
The State Control Model
China
A fundamentally different model that prioritizes state control and social stability over individual freedom of expression, creating a heavily monitored domestic internet.
- ✓Employs comprehensive censorship through the "Great Firewall."
- ✓Uses a broad legal framework and social credit systems to enforce compliance.
- ✓Actively promotes its vision of "digital sovereignty" on the global stage.